Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 35.600039 38.597464 41.870486 45.736076 50.211531 55.273679 61.496025
2025-03-16 30.294612 34.111740 38.553486 44.190819 51.287389 60.118853 72.276909
2025-03-23 28.429940 32.903369 38.360433 45.685147 55.561577 68.922953 89.398670
2025-03-30 26.376751 31.104614 37.064100 45.391422 57.212544 74.293696 102.953709
2025-04-06 24.639560 29.479820 35.739312 44.772782 58.155135 78.625668 115.955398
2025-04-13 22.896477 27.678013 33.976401 43.283527 57.520452 80.284957 124.730515
2025-04-20 22.347907 27.394032 34.210075 44.619490 61.289720 89.757619 151.653066
2025-04-27 21.785818 27.032676 34.279041 45.680074 64.734854 99.425467 183.859560
2025-05-04 21.160485 26.529233 34.085986 46.287763 67.475493 108.423078 220.086688
2025-05-11 20.335017 25.686154 33.323371 45.894996 68.368402 113.892184 250.562613
2025-05-18 19.525724 24.818065 32.459510 45.244928 68.680006 118.175991 280.917350
2025-05-25 18.699179 23.882026 31.432965 44.229309 68.155843 120.439315 306.383620
2025-06-01 18.007391 23.135799 30.691457 43.702848 68.656854 125.670126 351.901744
2025-06-08 17.153371 22.115698 29.475017 42.269752 67.186515 125.702421 375.206724
2025-06-15 16.995255 22.119006 29.854568 43.659745 71.718764 143.078651 526.237562
2025-06-22 16.496277 21.582347 29.338177 43.386693 72.658675 150.788036 642.938917
2025-06-29 15.972617 20.984509 28.688517 42.811340 72.842815 156.331757 767.120366
2025-07-06 15.323148 20.169146 27.645123 41.424861 71.002057 154.813867 816.238901
2025-07-13 15.223472 20.195314 27.982111 42.668720 75.482111 176.690985 1360.500986
2025-07-20 15.077182 20.140278 28.177427 43.655031 79.547241 199.861390 2582.922998
2025-07-27 14.863019 19.967774 28.161863 44.219706 82.666942 221.631882 5889.986889
2025-08-03 14.504689 19.551761 27.706676 43.854777 83.273798 232.688607 12994.113539
2025-08-10 14.126783 19.091647 27.154631 43.250481 83.145610 240.307120 39137.843231